The National Bureau of Statistics released the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) of July 2018 today. The senior statistician Sheng Guoqing from the Department of Urban Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics has made an interpretation.
I. CPI shifted to month-on-month rise from decline, and year-on-year rise picked up slightly
On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, mainly under the influence of the rise of non-food prices. Non-food prices rose by 0.3%, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of last month, contributing about 0.28 percentage point to the rise of CPI. As there were more demands in the summer vacation, the peak time for travel, the price of airline tickets, hotel accommodation and tourism rose by 14.5%, 7.9% and 2.2% respectively, totally contributing about 0.19 percentage point to the rise of CPI, as the main reason of the rise of CPI; both the housing price and healthcare price rose by 0.2%, totally contributing about 0.07 percentage point to the rise of CPI; affected by refined oil price adjustment, the price of gasoline and diesel both rose by 0.9%, contributing about 0.02 percentage point to the rise of CPI. Food price rose by 0.1%, changing the previous situation of dropping, contributing about 0.03 percentage point to the rise of CPI. The price of pork rose by 2.9%, 1.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, contributing about 0.06 percentage point to the rise of CPI; in some regions, as the hot weather and much rainfall were not beneficial to the production and transportation of vegetables, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 1.7%, contributing about 0.04 percentage point to the rise of CPI; with a large number of seasonal fruits appearing on the market, the price of fresh fruits dropped by 3.7%, contributing about 0.06 percentage point to the decline of CPI; for other food prices, there were rise and decline.
On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 2.1%, 0.2 percentage point higher compared to last month. Non-food prices rose by 2.4%, contributing about 1.96 percentage points to the rise of CPI. The price of gasoline and diesel rose by 22.7% and 25.1% respectively, totally contributing about 0.42 percentage point to the rise of CPI. Healthcare price rose by 4.6%; travel price rose by 4.4%; education service price rose by 2.8%; and housing price rose by 2.4%. The four totally contributed about 1.16 percentage points to the rise of CPI. Food price rose by 0.5%, contributing about 0.10 percentage point to the rise of CPI. The price of eggs, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose by 12.7%, 3.8% and 0.4% respectively, totally contributing about 0.16 percentage point to the rise of CPI; the price of beef, mutton and poultry rose by 3.1%, 13.3% and 6.6% respectively, totally contributing about 0.14 percentage point to the rise of CPI; the price of pork dropped by 9.6%, with the decrease continuing to be narrowed down, contributing about 0.24 percentage point to the decline of CPI. According to estimation, the carryover effect of the price change last year contributed about 1.4 percentage points to the year-on-year rise of 2.1% in July, and the new rise in price contributed about 0.7 percentage point.
II. PPI month-on-month rise and year-on-year rise both dropped
On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose by 0.1%, down by 0.2 percentage point compared to last month. The price of production goods rose by 0.1%, down by 0.3 percentage point compared to last month. The price of consumer goods rose by 0.2%, flat last month. Among major industries, oil and natural gas extraction rose by 1.3%, down by 3.2 percentage points compared to last month; oil, coal and other fuel processing rose by 0.9%, down by 1.4 percentage points; and ferrous metal smelting and rolling rose by 0.5%, down by 0.6 percentage point. Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling dropped by 1.6%, and manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products dropped by 0.3%, both changing the previous situation of rise. Manufacturing of computers, communication and other electronic equipment rose by 0.7%, up by 0.6 percentage point compared to last month; coal mining and washing rose by 0.6%, up by 0.3 percentage point.
On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 4.6%, down by 0.1 percentage point compared to last month. The price of production goods rose by 6.0%, down by 0.1 percentage point compared to last month; the price of consumer goods rose by 0.6%, up by 0.2 percentage point compared to last month. Among major industries, the rise of ferrous metal smelting and rolling and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling went down, totally contributing about 0.31 percentage point to the year-on-year decline of PPI. Oil and natural gas extraction rose by 42.1%, up by 9.4 percentage points compared to last month; oil, coal and other fuel processing rose by 24.6%, up by 4.7 percentage points. According to estimation, the carryover effect of the price change last year contributed about 3.9 percentage points to the year-on-year rise of 4.6% in July, and the new rise in price contributed about 0.7 percentage point.
