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National Bureau of Statistics Interpreted China PMI of February 2017

Submit Time:25-04-2017 | Zoom In | Zoom Out

Author: | Source:National Bureau of Statistics

Abstract:

On March 1, 2017, the Service Industry Research Center of National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing jointly released the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China. The senior statistician Zhao Qinghe from the Service Survey Center of National Bureau of Statistics has interpreted the PMI.  

I. The manufacturing PMI goes up while maintaining stability 

The manufacturing PMI of February is 51.6%, 0.3% up compared to last month, and 2.6% higher than that of the same period last year, remaining above 51.0% for 5 consecutive months. The manufacturing industry continues to maintain a stable performance with good momentum for growth, mainly presenting the following 4 features: 1. The manufacturing market demand picks up and production tends to be active. The production index and new orders index are 53.7% and 53.0% respectively, 0.6% and 0.2% up respectively compared to last month. 2. The demand becomes higher both at home and abroad. Import and export volumes continue to rise steadily. New export orders index and import index are 50.8% and 51.2% respectively, respectively 0.5% higher than that of last month, remaining within the expansion interval for 4 consecutive months. 3. The new driver of growth continues to play its role. Equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry maintain a sound momentum of development. The PMI of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing is 53.3% and 54.6% respectively, 1.7% and 3.0% higher than that of the overall manufacturing respectively. Especially, equipment manufacturing PMI reaches the highest in the past three years. The manufacturing PMI for general-purpose equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery and devices and computer, communication and electric equipment remains within the range of high prosperity consecutively. 4. The confidence of enterprises in the future development continues to grow. Expected production and business activities index is 60.0%, keeping rising for two consecutive months, within the range of high prosperity. Enterprises continue to be bullish on market expectations.  

According to the investigation result, the purchase price of raw materials continues to rise. The purchasing price index of major raw materials is 64.2%, remaining within the high range of 60.0% above for 5 consecutive months. The pass-through effect comes into being. The Producer Price Index (PPI) has remained within the expansion interval for 7 consecutive months, and increases to 56.3% this month, 1.6% higher than that of last month. Especially, in ferrous and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the PPI has increased significantly. In addition, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the rise of labor force cost reaches the highest over the past year where small enterprises account for 42.3%, 2.5% higher compared to overall manufacturing. 

From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises is 53.3%, 0.6% higher compared to last month, with the expansion accelerated; the PMI of medium enterprises is 50.5%, 0.3% lower compared to last month, remaining above the threshold level for 2 consecutive months; the PMI of small enterprises is 46.4%, flat last month, remaining within the contraction interval.  

II. Non-manufacturing business activity index falls, but still remains within the expansion interval 

The non-manufacturing business activity index of February is 54.2%, 0.4% lower compared to last month, remaining within the high prosperity range of 54.0% and above for 5 consecutive months, which indicates that though the non-manufacturing growth slows down, it maintains a momentum of relatively fast growth.  

The service industry operates stably overall. The business activity index is 53.2%, down 0.3% compared to last month, but still 1.0% higher than that of the same period last year. The new orders index is 50.5%, up 0.2% compared to last month, remaining within the expansion interval for consecutive 6 months. The market demand goes up while maintaining stability.  

As enterprises come into operation successively after the Spring Festival, the producer services and logistics grow significantly. The business activity index is 56.9% and 53.7% respectively, 3.0% and 6.1% higher compared to last month respectively. For sectors of railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, TV and satellite transmission service, Internet and software information technology service, monetary financial service and insurance, etc., the business activity index remain within the high prosperity range of 55.0% and above, serving as a powerful support for stable growth of service sector. For sectors of retailing, road transportation, catering, real estate, resident service and repair, etc., the business activity index is below the threshold level. The total business volume decreases.  

The construction industry continues to be within the range of high prosperity. Affected by the Spring Festival factors and low temperature in winter, few enterprises come into operation in January and February. The business activity index has fallen for 2 consecutive months, and drops to 60.1% this month, but still remains within the range of high prosperity. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected business activity index is 65.8%, up 1.3% compared to last month, which indicates that the enterprises are optimistic about future market expectations, and the construction industry is expected to maintain a momentum of relatively fast growth.  


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