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Affected by the Spring Festival factors, CPI Rise Picked Up in January

Submit Time:05-04-2017 | Zoom In | Zoom Out

Author:Sheng Guoqing | Source:National Bureau of Statistics

Abstract:

According to the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Indices for Manufactured Goods (PPI) of January 2017 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI was up 1.0% month on month and up 2.5% year on year; and PPI was up 0.8% month on month and up 6.9% year on year.   

I. Affected by the Spring Festival factors, CPI month-on-month and year-on-year rise picked up 

CPI rose 1.0% in January, up 0.8% compared to that in December 2016. First, food price rose 2.3% due to holiday factors, among which the price of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, aquatic products and pork went up 6.2%, 5.7%, 4.4% and 3.4% respectively month on month, contributing about 0.42% to the overall CPI rise. Second, as more people traveled during the winter vacation and the Spring Festival, transport and travel prices rose significantly; air tickets, charges of travel agencies, long distance bus tickets and hotel rates rose by 18.6%, 11.1%, 3.4% and 3.2% respectively, contributing about 0.23% to the overall CPI rise. Third, affected by domestic refined oil price adjustment, gasoline and diesel prices were up 4.7% and 5.2% respectively, contributing about 0.09% to the overall CPI rise. CPI rose 1.0% in January this year, 0.6% and 0.2% lower than that in the month of the Spring Festival in 2016 and 2015, respectively, mainly because the warm winter caused the price of fresh vegetables rose at a rate far less than that in the month of the Spring Festival in the previous two years.  

CPI rose 2.5% year on year, 0.4% higher than that of the previous month. By category, the transport and communication prices rose 1.4% compared to last month, contributing 0.17% to the month-on-month rise of CPI; travel price rose 5.9% compared to last month, contributing 0.11% to the month-on-month rise of CPI; food price rose 0.3% compared to last month, contributing 0.07% to the month-on-month rise of CPI. Totally, the above three categories contributed 0.35% to the month-on-month rise of CPI. 

According to estimation, the carryover effect of the price rise last year contributed about 1.5% to the month-on-month rise of CPI 2.5% in January, and the new rise in price contributed about 1.0%; in February, due to Spring Festival factors and a high base of the same period last year, the carryover effect was significantly down. 

II. PPI month-on-month rise went down and year-on-year rise continued to pick up 

PPI rose 0.8% in January, going down after an increase for 4 consecutive months, 0.8% lower than that in December 2016. Among them, price of production goods rose 1.1%, 0.9% lower than that of the previous month; the price of consumer goods rose 0.2%, 0.1% lower than that of the previous month. From the perspective of major industries, first, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling, manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products, coal mining and washing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling rose 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.7% and 0.1% respectively, 5.9%, 0.7%,1.7% and 2.3% lower than that of the previous month respectively, totally contributing about 0.3% to the month-on-month rise of PPI, down 0.7% in terms of the influence on PPI compared to last month; second, affected by the price rise of international crude oil, oil and gas exploration and oil processing prices were up 10.4% and 3.9% respectively, totally contributing about 0.3% to the month-on-month rise of PPI.  

PPI rose 6.9% in January, up 1.4% compared to that in December 2016. Among the investigated 40 industrial categories, 33 industries saw the month-on-month rise of product prices, one more compared to the previous month. The price of oil and natural gas extraction, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, oil processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling and manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products rose 58.5%, 38.4%, 37.7%, 24.4%, 17.3% and 9.2% respectively, 38.8%, 4.4%, 2.7%, 7.8%, 0.2% and 2.6% lower than that of the previous month respectively, totally contributing about 5.7% to the month-on-month rise of PPI, accounting for 82.6% of the total rise. 

According to estimation, the carryover effect of the price change last year contributed about 6.1% to the month-on-month rise of PPI 6.9% in January, and the new rise in price contributed about 0.8%. 


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