The National Bureau of Statistics released the national consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) of September 2016 today, which showed that CPI increased by 0.7% month on month and 1.9% year on year, and the PPI rose by 0.5% month on month and 0.1% year on year. Yu Qiumei, senior statistician of the City Division of National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted such both data.
I. Consumer prices surged dramatically year on year.
The CPI grew by 0.7% in September year on year. In terms of food, due to some regions' vegetable production being in a seasonal transitional phase in addition to impacts brought by severe weather such as typhoon, the fresh vegetable price saw a big hike of 10.7% month on month; as weather turned cooler and some kinds of fruits became out of season, the fresh fruit price increased by 5.2% month on month. The vegetable and fruit prices' increase contributed 0.33 percentage point to the rise of CPI. With regard to nonfood products, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 2.8% and 3.3% month on month respectively because of the price adjustment of refined oil products in China; affected by increase of tuition in some kindergartens and private schools in some areas, the educational service price rose by 2.1% month on month; due to the seasonal clothing switch, the clothing price increased by 0.8% month on month. The month-on-month price rise of gasoline, diesel, educational service and clothing contributed 0.25 percentage point to increase of CPI.
The CPI increased by 1.9% in September year on year, 0.6 percentage point higher than the year-on-year growth of the prior month. On one hand, some consumer prices turned to increase from decrease. For example, the prices of the fresh vegetable, fresh fruit and gasoline changed from decrease of 3.9%, 0.6% and 3.6% in the prior month to increase of 7.5%, 6.7% and 2.2% in this month, contributing about 0.49 percentage point to the rise of CPI. On the other hand, the prices of some services surged dramatically year on year. The prices of the air ticket and educational service rose by 4.0% and 3.2% year on year respectively, 2.2 and 1.0 percentage points higher than the year-on-year growth of the prior month and contributing 0.07 percentage point to the rise of CPI.
II. The year-on-year increment of the producer price index turned from negative to positive.
In September, the national PPI increased by 0.5% month on month, 0.3 percentage point higher than the growth of the prior month. The month-on-month variation of PPI has the following characteristics: first, the number of sectors with the price rise remarkably increased, and among all industrial sectors surveyed, product prices of 25 sectors saw a hike and the number of sectors with the product price was 8 more than that of the prior month; second, the growth of some important industrial sectors' prices enlarged significantly, and among them, the prices of coal mining and washing and chemical materials and products manufacturing increased by 5.4% and 0.5% month on month, 3.9 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the growth in the prior month respectively; third, the prices of some industrial sectors changed from decreasing to increasing, and among them, the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation and petroleum processing turned from decrease in the prior month to growth of 4.0% and 3.2% respectively.
In September, the PPI rose by 0.1% year on year, ending the tendency of 54-month consecutive decrease, and has seen the positive increment for the first time since March 2012. In this year, influenced by the policy of stabilizing growth, reducing production capacity and eliminating inventories, the domestic imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial sectors was mitigated to some extent. The inventories and sales of important sectors showed a trend towards good development and additionally, the situations of bulk commodities such as crude oil, iron ores and nonferrous metals on the international market turned better and the domestic industrial products' prices continued rallying. In terms of significant sectors, the prices of ferrous and nonferrous metal melting, rolling and processing rose by 10.1% and 1.2% year on year with the growth of 3.6 and 0.4 percentage point more than that in the prior month respectively; the price of coal mining and washing increased by 4.1% and has increased for the first time since July 2012. It is estimated that the said three sectors totally contributed 0.8 percentage point to the year-on-year rise of the PPI and were the important factor to turn the increment of PPI from negative to positive.