CPI and PPI Rise Steadily On the Whole in September 2018

　　  The National Bureau of Statistics released today the data on the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) in September 2018. In this regard, Sheng Guoqing, a senior statistician from the Department of Urban Surveys of the National Bureau of Statistics, gave his interpretation.

　　     I. CPI growth is the same as last month, with a slight increase over the same period last year

　　On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose by 0.7%, with a growth same as last month. Specifically, food prices rose by 2.4%, with a growth same as last month, causing the CPI to rise about 0.46%; non-food prices rose by 0.3%, with a growth of 0.1% over last month, causing the CPI to rise about 0.25%. With regard to food prices, fresh vegetable prices rose by 9.8% because the crops alternated between summer and autumn and some areas suffered from extreme weather conditions such as typhoon, heavy rainfall and hailstorm, 0.8% up compared to last month, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.25%. Due to seasonal factors, fresh fruit prices rose by 6.4%, 5.6% up compared to last month, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.10%. Due to the influence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, the demand for pork and eggs increased, with prices rising by 3.7% and 2.2%, respectively causing the CPI to rise by about 0.10%. The aquatic product prices fell by 1.5%, causing the CPI to decline by about 0.03%. With regard to non-food prices, the price of educational services rose by 1.9% due to multiple factors such as price rise, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.12%; the rent drove the housing price to increase by 0.4%, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.08%; with the autumn clothing appeared on the market, clothes prices rose by 0.7%, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.06%; gasoline and diesel prices rose by 2.3% and 2.5% due to the price adjustment of refined oil products, respectively, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.05%; given the decrease in travels after summer vacation, the prices of air tickets, tourism and hotel accommodation declined by 6.8%, 3.5% and 1.1%, respectively, collectively causing the CPI to decline by about 0.09%.

　　On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 2.5%, 0.2% up compared to last month. Specifically, food prices rose by 3.6%, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.69%; non-food prices rose by 2.2%, causing the CPI to rise by about 1.78%. With regard to food prices, the prices of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 14.6%, 10.2% and 6.2%, respectively, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.55%; beef, mutton and poultry prices rose by 3.8%, 11.1% and 4.4%, respectively, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.10%; pork prices declined by 2.4%, which continued to be narrowed down, causing the CPI to decline by about 0.06%. With regard to non-food prices, the housing prices rose by 2.6%, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.56%; the prices of educational services and health care rose by 3.1% and 2.7%, respectively, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.42; gasoline and diesel prices rose by 21.2% and 23.5%, respectively, causing the CPI to rise by about 0.40%. It is estimated that carryover effects of price changes in last year contributed about 0.5% and new price-rising factors contributed about 2.0% to the 2.5% year-on-year increase of the CPI in September.

　　    II. PPI achieves expanded month-on-month increase and narrowed year-on-year increase

　　On a month-on-month basis, PPI rose by 0.6%, with an increase of 0.2% over last month. Specifically, the price of means of production rose by 0.7%, with an increase of 0.2% over last month; the price of means of livelihood rose by 0.1%, down by 0.2% over last month. Among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, 30 industries saw rising prices, 4 industries saw flat prices and 6 industries saw declining prices. Influenced by changes in international oil prices, the prices of oil and related industries have risen considerably. Specifically, the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 4.0%, 2.3% up compared to last month; the prices of chemical fiber manufacturing industry rose by 3.9%, up by 1.9%; the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry rose by 3.8%, up by 3.0%; the prices of chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry rose by 1.0%, up by 0.4%. The above-mentioned four industries caused the PPI together to rise by about 0.32%, which is the main reason for the expanded month-on-month increase of PPI. The prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 0.3% from a decline, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 1.5%, down by 0.6% over last month.

　　On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 3.6%, down by 0.5% over last month. Specifically, the price of means of production rose by 4.6%, the growth rate of which declined by 0.6% over last month, which was mainly affected by the higher contrast base over the same period last year; the price of means of livelihood rose by 0.8%, the growth rate of which was 0.1% up compared with that of last month. Among major industries, the prices of nonferrous nonmetal mineral product industry rose by 8.1%, the growth rate of which declined by 0.9% compared to that of last month; the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 7.2%, the growth rate of which declined by 2.3% compared to that of last month; the prices of chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry rose by 7.0%, the growth rate of which declined by 0.9% compared to that of last month; the prices of coal mining and washing industry rose by 3.6%, the growth rate of which declined by 2.1% compared to that of last month. The above-mentioned four majors caused the year-on-year growth of PPI together to decline by about 0.32%. The prices of oil and natural gas mining industry rose by 41.2%, the growth rate of which was 1.6% up compared with that of last month; the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 24.1%, the growth rate of which was 1.4% up compared with that of last month. In addition, the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry declined by 1.7% from a rise. It is estimated that carryover effects of price changes in last year contributed about 1.9% and new price-rising factors contributed about 1.7% to the 3.6% year-on-year increase of the PPI in September.